Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 2.787756 3.243575 3.748213 4.348042 5.041360 5.817362 6.751692
2026-01-18 2.074409 2.684774 3.432529 4.414732 5.669914 7.219380 9.277032
2026-01-25 1.603668 2.265604 3.146795 4.402832 6.144645 8.472491 11.818452
2026-02-01 1.218423 1.854880 2.764186 4.153321 6.217436 9.166657 13.697072
2026-02-08 0.975765 1.585523 2.511948 4.015051 6.386091 9.974923 15.812550
2026-02-15 0.819366 1.411110 2.360768 3.986226 6.689723 10.995619 18.362135
2026-02-22 0.731889 1.328364 2.334008 4.140088 7.290104 12.541077 21.938511
2026-03-01 0.630821 1.202571 2.211992 4.108037 7.564416 13.575119 24.791211
2026-03-08 0.543247 1.084560 2.082483 4.037408 7.751482 14.470410 27.505760
2026-03-15 0.480215 1.001186 2.001336 4.039238 8.063317 15.615931 30.809439
2026-03-22 0.462176 1.002726 2.079781 4.354940 9.008934 18.042228 36.824880
2026-03-29 0.423884 0.956061 2.055533 4.460906 9.552789 19.763054 41.682928
2026-04-05 0.384993 0.903986 2.017145 4.542284 10.079984 21.562693 47.038626
2026-04-12 0.345165 0.843487 1.952747 4.560907 10.483970 23.178662 52.271395
2026-04-19 0.307028 0.780156 1.872201 4.531218 10.778515 24.605192 57.304504
2026-04-26 0.259014 0.684364 1.702327 4.268940 10.506761 24.760587 59.539830
2026-05-03 0.225207 0.617710 1.590151 4.125023 10.487759 25.475854 63.149268
2026-05-10 0.202149 0.574621 1.528405 4.094781 10.737353 26.842919 68.481935
2026-05-17 0.191012 0.561492 1.540030 4.252505 11.477857 29.475625 77.247287
2026-05-24 0.172371 0.524093 1.482460 4.219525 11.723345 30.926433 83.256120
2026-05-31 0.154324 0.485070 1.414280 4.146995 11.853357 32.103120 88.723301
2026-06-07 0.141148 0.458080 1.375069 4.148865 12.185803 33.846048 95.920443
2026-06-14 0.140258 0.468640 1.444519 4.472928 13.465811 38.265082 110.937822